Where to next? Insights from autonomous-vehicle experts - McKinsey & Company

Where to next? Insights from autonomous-vehicle expertsJanuary 6, 2026 | ArticleAutonomous-vehicle technology is developing rapidly, but the future is still in flux. McKinsey conducted its third biannual survey to take the pulse of industry leaders today. (13 pages) Autonomous vehicles are on the on-ramp to full deployment. Recent years have seen the first Level 3 (L3) vehicle releases, more than 700,000 fully autonomous robo-taxi rides per week, and the first driverless demos for autonomous trucks. This ramp-up is global: Europe has been home to more than 35 autonomous-vehicle pilots to date, and the United States and China each see more than 450,000 and 250,000 commercial rides per week, respectively.1 About the authorsThis article is a collaborative effort by Ani Kelkar, Kersten Heineke, and Martin Kellner, with Charlotte Wiemuth and Eduardo Mañas-Pont, representing views from McKinsey’s Automotive & Assembly Practice. With the industry charging forward, the race to win is far from over. Developers are working to overcome the next round of technological and investment barriers, and questions remain about how tech stacks will develop. In other words, advanced driver-assistance systems and autonomous driving have room to scale. MethodologyThe McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, in partnership with The Autonomous and Ride AI, conducts a biannual survey of leaders in the autonomous-driving industry. The 2025 survey, conducted in January 2025, included 91 decision-makers from around the globe (43 from the European Union, 35 from North America, and 13 from Asia). They included start-ups and established incumbents in automotive, transportation, and software, as well as supporting institutions such as universities and mapping and navigation companies. These decision-makers included directors of product management, vice presidents of engineering, chief experience officers, and heads of strategy. They were selected based on their expertise and considerable experience in the sector. To better understand the reasoning behind survey responses, survey results were discussed in a workshop at a conference hosted by The Autonomous. In some instances, results have been combined with the 2023 baseline to provide data that is analytically rich. To understand trends in this fast-paced industry, the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility conducted its third biannual survey of industry leaders, coupled with a workshop to discuss survey results (see sidebar “Methodology”). This year provided some particularly notable insights, including expert updates on lengthening adoption timelines and increasing development costs, perspectives on regional progress, and ideas about what form of autonomous technology will win out. We break down these insights and more below. Adoption timelines for autonomous vehicles continue to grow Levels of autonomous drivingSAE International, a global professional association that develops engineering standards, splits autonomous-vehicle development into six levels, from Level 0 (L0) through L5. L0 through L2 require humans to drive and constantly monitor automated support systems, which include warning systems, braking and acceleration, and steering. L3 vehicles are the highest level of automation widely available to consumers today. At this level, a car can operate independently, but systems can request that a driver take over at any time. These systems can operate only in certain conditions, such as during traffic jams. L4 vehicles, which include driverless taxis, are currently being tested, developed, and deployed. Unlike L3 vehicles, L4 vehicles function without a driver who is ready to take over. L5 vehicles are fully autonomous in any environment and under all conditions. These vehicles are the final frontier for autonomous-vehicle development. This year’s survey indicates that adoption timelines for autonomous vehicles have slipped by one to two years on average—relative to the 2023 survey2—across most autonomous-driving use cases. While L4 robo-taxis are now available in the first cities in the United States and China, the global rollout of robo-taxis is now expected to become reality at a large scale in 2030, rather than 2029 (see sidebar “Levels of autonomous driving”). Similarly, L4 urban pilots for private passenger cars are expected to be pushed out from 2030 to 2032, and fully autonomous trucking is expected to reach viability by 2032, not 2031. Overall, experts expect that robo-taxis will be the first commercial application for L4 in mobility—not privately owned cars. The availability of autonomous vehicles is also expected to vary across geographies. As mentioned, the United States and China have seen the earliest rollouts of robo-taxis, but other geographies may see later deployments. Surveyed experts expect that it will take three to seven years for robo-taxis to be widely deployed commercially and available across all geographies. Experts predict similar rollout patterns for trucks and passenger cars. China and the United States are expected to lead, with most use cases launching significantly earlier than in Europe or the rest of Asia. A number of factors are likely contributing to this regional divide, including faster development cycles, agile commercial organizations and start-up cultures, regulatory support, funding availability, a strong available AI and software base, built environments that are more conducive to autonomous driving (versus crowded city centers), larger market sizes, and a stronger willingness to test new technologies at large scale.3 The mass-market focus for privately owned vehicles is shifting to L2+ functions Out of the experts surveyed this year, the largest group (49 percent) now believes that the mass market for privately owned vehicles (not robo-taxis) will center on L2+ functions by 2035. This marks a shift away from the focus on L3 or higher functions seen in the 2023 survey, in which 52 percent of experts anticipated the market to move toward L3 or higher systems. These prior predictions were largely based on the assumption that costs for L3 systems would decrease and that beneficial aspects of L3 vehicles (for example, their ability to allow drivers to rest or perform nondriving tasks such as working or gaming) could enhance their appeal. Today, only 39 percent of experts predict the market to focus on L3 or higher. This decline may be due to a lack of funding, high costs for development and validation, and slow technological advancements. Today, experts increasingly see L3 autonomous functionality as an optional, niche product, primarily targeted at premium vehicles rather than at